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Italy vs Ireland Euro 2012 preview From Espnsoccernet.com

Italy’s story of Euro 2012 so far has been a tale of two draws – one heralded, one lamented. After earning plaudits for their enterprising 1-1 stalemate with world champions Spain in their opening game, the same team and the same tactics were far less celebrated when they were held to the same scoreline by Croatia.

Cesare Prandelli’s 3-5-2 formation operated fluently for a game-and-a-half until Slaven Bilic’s tactical tinkering at the interval halted its momentum, blunting Italy’s wing backs and forcing them deeper into their own half. Despite some efficient forward movement, they have registered only two goals – the last an expertly taken free-kick from the evergreen Andrea Pirlo. His midfield prompting has been one of the shining lights of Prandelli’s operation so far.

Neither Antonio Cassano nor Mario Balotelli has found the net, despite a steady trickle of chances falling their way. But there is hope for a better goals return against Ireland, who have provided the leakiest defence at the tournament. Italy must win their final game to stand any chance of making the last eight. If they do gain three points, and there is a decisive result in Spain’s clash with Croatia, they’ll qualify in second. If they win and the other game ends in a draw it gets complicated. If Spain v Croatia ends 0-0, Italy go through with Spain. If it finishes 1-1 it will come down to goal difference. If Spain and Croatia serve up a 2-2 draw, they will both go through and Italy will head home. Conspiracy theories have swiftly been denounced by both camps.

Italy player to watch: Antonio Cassano

It has been a case of nearly but not quite for the mercurial striker at Euro 2012 – his controversial aside about homosexuals making more headlines than his performances on the pitch. But there is a sense Cassano is nearing top form, as his first half showing against Croatia suggested. The Milan forward can expect more room in which to operate in against Ireland and must utilise it properly if he is to finally make the big impact many expected from him before the tournament began.

Ireland player to watch: Robbie Keane

Ireland’s captain has had to feed on scraps in the tournament so far, with Ireland’s creative players reduced to mere bystanders during the defeat to Spain. Unlike some of his colleagues, he has rejected talk of international retirement, so a demonstration that he is still able to cut it on such a glittering stage would be timely before Ireland’s World Cup qualification campaign begins.

Key Battle: Andrea Pirlo v Keith Andrews

With respect, a mismatch in terms of ability, but Andrews – and midfield colleague Glenn Whelan – must get close to Pirlo to stunt his expansive range of passing. Croatia afforded the 33-year-old time and space in the first half of their match and paid the price, but profited in the second when they made sure he was shackled. Andrews must do the same if Ireland are to prosper.

Trivia: Ireland have only beaten Italy twice in the 11 games they’ve played against each other but 18 years ago to the day they will meet in Poznan came one of the Republic’s most famous wins, a 1-0 success over Italy at World Cup ’94 in the United States, courtesy of a Ray Houghton goal.

Stats: Italy have now gone six matches without a win at major final tournaments – the worst run in their history.

Odds: Italy (1.30), the draw (5.50) and Ireland (11.00) are on offer with bet365, with a 3-3 draw available at 81.00.

Prediction: Ireland have never lost all their games at a major tournament and their chastened pack will perform much better than in their opening two games but needs must for Italy, who should have enough to claim victory.